Lithium-ion equipment: survival or destruction
The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and the Ministry of Commerce issued the “Implementation Plan for Promoting the Recycling of Key Consumer Goods and Smooth Resources Recycling (2019-2020)”. The plan proposes that new energy vehicles should not be restricted or restricted, and they have been cancelled. On the other hand, the policy encourages the construction of charging piles, and the charging facilities are constructed in proportion to not less than 10% of the number of parking spaces.
The policy is clearly conducive to the development of the new energy vehicle industry chain. In addition, the 5G Internet communication technology is in full swing, which will require more large-capacity lithium batteries in the future.
Once the consumption of large-capacity lithium batteries is expanded, the demand for lithium-ion equipment will increase, and the corresponding market space will also increase.
Of course, the predictions are not necessarily realized, and black swan events may occur.
For example, the growth rate of the new energy automobile industry and the expansion of power battery capacity are not as expected, resulting in a decline in the gross profit margin of lithium-ion equipment companies and an intensification of industry reshuffle.
However, according to the International Energy Agency, by 2025, the global electric vehicle market is expected to be about $570 billion. However, the sum of the planned production capacity of the well-known domestic power battery company Ningde era and BYD to 2020 will exceed 100GWh. It can be seen that the prospect of power battery is still very broad.
From the forecast data alone, the market space for lithium-ion equipment is still growing, and there is still much imaginary value.
Where there are benefits, there are rivers and lakes. This huge market cake is bound to attract a group of lithium equipment companies to compete.
In addition, when the battery technology of power battery companies is further matured, the standardization of downstream lithium battery equipment needs to be strengthened, which will weaken the differentiation between devices and weaken the right to speak of lithium battery equipment.
Because of the manufacture of lithium battery equipment, it is closely related to its process.
In general, the lithium battery process is roughly divided into three stages: pole piece fabrication, cell assembly, and battery assembly. The corresponding lithium battery device can be divided into a front end, a middle end, and a back end.
The front end equipment includes a mixer, a coating machine, a slitting machine, etc.; the middle end equipment includes a winder, a laminating machine, a liquid filling machine, etc.; the back end equipment includes a chemical forming cabinet, a sub-combination cabinet, a testing device, a PACK automation device, and the like.
For the economic proportion of all processes, the value distribution of the products in the front, middle and back sections is about 4:3:3, in which the coating machine and the winder have the highest technical difficulty and the largest value (the cost of the front section respectively). 80%, the middle cost is 70%).
The Matthew effect continues to play a role in the competition in the lithium battery market.
The most obvious feature of this era is that as long as there is money, it will immediately flood into a large number of people to seize the market. Correspondingly, if a company wants to improve its competitiveness, the best way is to cultivate problem-solving skills and help customers solve problems.
The future trend is obvious. Leading battery companies choose to cooperate with large-scale lithium-ion equipment companies to produce more consumer-recognized products, reduce costs, lower prices, and finally make small and medium-sized equipment companies survive.
If the cost of the equipment enterprise will not fall for a while, the payment method will go ahead, because the money is interest-bearing, and to some extent, the equipment company bears the risk to the battery factory in advance.
From order signing, equipment delivery, arrival commissioning to final acceptance, it is reported that most equipment factories adopt the “3331” payment method. There are also some companies that use "091", "2431" and other payment methods to get orders.
Such a deferred payment method, in the event of arrears in payment of goods, failure to repay in time, etc., equipment companies are likely to fall into the dilemma of high receivables and broken capital chains.
In order to get rid of the capital squeeze and improve the competitive advantage, equipment companies must finally work hard on equipment technology, on the one hand, shorten the shipping cycle, compress inventory, and on the other hand reduce costs and equipment optimization.
The author believes that there are three main aspects.
1. The function modules are integrated.
The function of the manufacturing process of the front, middle and back sections of the lithium battery is made into an integrated machine to reduce the excess material cost of the equipment and improve production efficiency.
For example, an integrated device such as a roll splitting machine, a coating roll splitting machine, a severing integrated machine, and a sheet winding machine is introduced.
Reduce the process, optimize the structure, simple process, less action beats, and the stability of the overall equipment will be good.
2. Integrate the industrial chain and reduce the transaction cost of the enterprise.
Kos, the Nobel laureate in economics, once said that the birth of a company is to reduce the transaction costs of the market. The merger and acquisition between enterprises is to some extent practice this concept.
The market share of power batteries is concentrated in mainstream enterprises such as CATL and BYD, and expansion is also a mainstream power battery company.
Therefore, those customers who are not mainstream enterprises of lithium battery equipment, the market will be squeezed. The horizontal integration between equipment companies will accelerate, such as Keheng's acquisition of Chengjie Intelligent and Yuchen Automation.
3, the leading technology breakthrough, leading the battery process production.
Most are developed around the battery technology that has been established by the battery company to maintain technological leadership in only one or a few.
At present, there is still no lithium-ion equipment company that can directly determine the process for power battery companies.
With the rational return of the capital boom, the technical strength of equipment companies will be higher. If lithium-ion equipment companies can seize the manufacturing process, achieve breakthroughs in technology, help battery companies reduce costs, and lead the development of battery technology, it is not difficult to survive.
In the end, all competition is essentially a competition for problem-solving skills.
If the lithium battery industry wants to grow and develop, especially from research and development to after-sales operation and maintenance, it needs to be simple and simple, improve efficiency, and really help battery companies solve production problems.
The core of the market economy is that it can only grow and develop if it solves the customer's problems. The same is true for the lithium battery industry.