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三元电池一统锂电江湖
时间:2022-12-16 17:12:13        点击量:【 】次

2017年,锂电池产业链共发生并购重组35起,交易金额超过465亿元。行业集中度也有所增强,2016年出货量排名前十的动力电池企业合计市场份额69.8%,2017年这一数字增长至82.4%。其中,仅宁德时代一家就占到整体市场份额的近三成。


若现有政策趋势维持不变,预计2018年及以后,磷酸铁锂电池将逐步退出电动汽车市场。


4月12日,真锂研究首席分析师墨柯在第三届镍钴锂产业链峰会暨正极材料交易研讨会上发表了上述观点。他表示,预计2019年,磷酸铁锂电池完全将退出纯电动乘用车市场,在纯电动客车的占比也将逐年下降,其重心转向低速电动车市场,但该市场也将面临三元电池的强力竞争。


按照车的类型,纯电动车可分为纯电动客车、纯电动乘用车和纯电动专用车等。

2017年,纯电动客车市场中的磷酸铁锂电池占比仍然很大,接近九成。但墨柯预计,这一占比将在未来三年(2018-2020年)分别下降至75%、50%和25%。



有机构数据显示,2017年,国内动力电池装机量约为36.39GWh,同比增长超过20%。锂电池技术路线已在去年发生巨大变化,三元动力电池在市场份额中的占比超过44%,较2016年增长了一倍。


宁德时代、比亚迪(002594.SZ)、国轩高科(002074.SZ)等磷酸铁锂电池企业均已开始扩大三元电池产能。去年8月,国轩高科公告称,其子公司将与中国冶金科工集团有限公司、比亚迪、唐山曹妃甸发展投资集团有限公司联手布局三元正极材料,新成立的合资公司注册金额为9.37亿元。此外,比亚迪今年预计将在青海扩充10GWh的三元电池产能。



墨柯认为,锂电池行业在2017年开始深度调整,装机重心向纯电动乘用车转移,补贴与电池能量密度挂钩后,三元锂电池的快速增长超出行业预计,三元电池路线将快速占据统治地位。


“纯电动乘用车将是未来几年增长的重点,预计2018年同比增长将接近50%。”墨柯表示。据他预测,动力电池装机总量将在2020年突破100GWh。

调整后的新能源补贴政策将于今年6月12日起正式施行。新政策按行驶里程将补贴划分为六个档位,计算方式为:单车补贴金额=里程补贴标准×电池系统能量密度调整系数×车辆能耗调整系数。


新补贴政策将推动动力电池行业加速洗牌。2017年,能量密度小于105Wh/kg的电池装机占到50.7%,而这一部分在新方案将没有补贴。


墨柯表示,新补贴政策对纯电动客车的影响较大,主管部门正在加大力度刺激技术进步,“在纯电动乘用车方面,新方案百公里电耗要求平均降低了12.6%,将淘汰近30%的产品。”


据统计,2017年,锂电池产业链共发生并购重组35起,交易金额超过465亿元。行业集中度也有所增强,2016年出货量排名前十的动力电池企业合计市场份额69.8%,2017年这一数字增长至82.4%。其中,仅宁德时代一家就占到整体市场份额的近三成。


补贴的退坡也导致了电池企业利润的下降,2017年比亚迪净利润同比下降19.51%,今年一季度,净利润预计仍将下降75.24%-91.75%。


此外,墨柯还在会上表示,在技术开发方面,中国电池企业已经赶上国外企业,但在生产品质方面仍有差距,总体上看,2020年,中国电池产业水平将与韩国相当。


In 2017, there were 35 mergers and acquisitions in the lithium battery industry chain, with a transaction amount of more than 46.5 billion yuan. Industry concentration has also been enhanced. In 2016, the market share of power battery enterprises ranked among the top 10 in terms of shipments totaled 69.8%, and in 2017, this figure grew to 82.4%. Among them, Ningde Times alone accounted for nearly 30% of the overall market share.




If the current policy trend remains unchanged, it is expected that lithium iron phosphate battery will gradually withdraw from the electric vehicle market in 2018 and beyond.



On April 12, Moco, the chief analyst of True Lithium Research, expressed the above views at the Third Nickel Cobalt Lithium Industry Chain Summit and the Cathode Materials Trading Seminar. He said that it was expected that in 2019, the lithium iron phosphate battery would completely withdraw from the pure electric passenger vehicle market, and its share in pure electric buses would also decline year by year. Its focus would turn to the low-speed electric vehicle market, but the market would also face strong competition from ternary batteries.




According to the types of vehicles, pure electric vehicles can be divided into pure electric buses, pure electric passenger vehicles and pure electric special vehicles.




In 2017, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the pure electric bus market was still large, close to 90%. However, Merco predicts that this proportion will decrease to 75%, 50% and 25% respectively in the next three years (2018-2020).



According to institutional data, in 2017, the installed capacity of domestic power batteries was about 36.39GWh, with a year-on-year growth of more than 20%. The technical route of lithium battery has changed dramatically last year. The market share of ternary power battery has exceeded 44%, double that of 2016.




Ningde Times, BYD (002594. SZ), Guoxuan Hi Tech (002074. SZ) and other lithium iron phosphate battery enterprises have all started to expand the production capacity of ternary batteries. In August last year, Guoxuan Hi Tech announced that its subsidiaries would cooperate with China Metallurgical Group Co., Ltd., BYD and Tangshan Caofeidian Development Investment Group Co., Ltd. to arrange ternary cathode materials. The newly established joint venture had a registered amount of 937 million yuan. In addition, BYD is expected to expand the production capacity of 10GWh ternary batteries in Qinghai this year.



Merco believes that the lithium battery industry began to make a deep adjustment in 2017, with the focus of installation shifted to pure electric passenger vehicles. After the subsidy was linked to the battery energy density, the rapid growth of ternary lithium batteries exceeded the industry's expectations, and the ternary battery line will quickly occupy the dominant position.


"Pure electric passenger vehicles will be the focus of growth in the next few years, and it is expected that the year-on-year growth in 2018 will be close to 50%." Merco said. According to his prediction, the total installed capacity of power battery will exceed 100GWh in 2020.



The adjusted new energy subsidy policy will be officially implemented on June 12 this year. According to the new policy, the subsidy is divided into six gears according to mileage, and the calculation method is: subsidy amount for single vehicle=mileage subsidy standard × Adjustment coefficient of energy density of battery system × Adjustment coefficient of vehicle energy consumption.



The new subsidy policy will accelerate the reshuffle of the power battery industry. In 2017, the installed capacity of batteries with energy density less than 105Wh/kg accounted for 50.7%, and this part will not be subsidized in the new scheme.



Merco said that the new subsidy policy has a great impact on pure electric passenger cars, and the competent authorities are increasing efforts to stimulate technological progress. "In terms of pure electric passenger cars, the power consumption requirements of the new scheme for 100 kilometers have been reduced by 12.6% on average, and nearly 30% of the products will be eliminated."



According to statistics, in 2017, there were 35 mergers and acquisitions in the lithium battery industry chain, with a transaction amount of more than 46.5 billion yuan. Industry concentration has also been enhanced. In 2016, the market share of power battery enterprises ranked among the top 10 in terms of shipments totaled 69.8%, and in 2017, this figure grew to 82.4%. Among them, Ningde Times alone accounted for nearly 30% of the overall market share.


The decline of subsidies has also led to a decline in the profits of battery enterprises. In 2017, BYD's net profit fell by 19.51% year on year. In the first quarter of this year, the net profit is expected to fall by 75.24% - 91.75%.


In addition, Merco also said at the meeting that in terms of technology development, Chinese battery enterprises have caught up with foreign enterprises, but there is still a gap in production quality. On the whole, in 2020, China's battery industry level will be comparable to that of South Korea.


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